A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
